California is bracing for a potentially historic “super” El Niño winter, with forecasters warning of an exceptionally high probability of above-average precipitation across the state for the upcoming rainy season.
Driven by unusually warm ocean surface waters, the reshaping of the Pacific jet stream is expected to funnel a train of moisture-rich “atmospheric rivers” directly into the state, which in turn creates a heightened danger of inland flooding throughout the Central Valley. Runoff from the mountains combined with prolonged heavy rain threatens local levee systems and low-lying agricultural zones.
So this is all very unwelcome news considering what happened just a few years ago.
The heavy winter floods of 2022–2023 — driven by a relentless series of those atmospheric rivers — caused millions of dollars in property, agricultural, and infrastructure damage across the Merced area.
While the town of Planada bore the brunt of the devastation after a critical levee breach along Miles Creek, Merced residents watched in panic or deep anxiety, as waters along Bear Creek reached over 26 feet, and at some points,overflowed the banks and bike paths, pouring into neighborhood streets. This triggered mandatory evacuation zones, forcing thousands of residents out of their homes, as well as emergency maintenance work to reinforce damaged embankments.
Fortunately, no lives were lost.
On Sept. 8, members of the Merced City Council and department leaders discussed the municipality’s flood control efforts at the request of Mayor Matthew Serratto.
“We are seeing predictions of a very significant rainfall,” the mayor said as he directed department heads to explain what preparations are being made so that “we’re all on the same page” and “we can educate the public.”
The mayor added, “If there are any gaps, we need to know right away. We need to be able to adjust and give you guys resources if needed.”
It turns out, according to the discussion, the city is actively making preparations, but yes, there are “gaps” in the larger scope of clearing debris from Bear Creek.
“Clearly, having a plan in place and being proactive about this issue is extremely important to us,” City Manager Scott McBride commented. “We’re coordinating with our partners — the Merced County Streams Group, the Merced Irrigation District (MID), and Merced County, with very frequent conversations about concerns we have about the permitting system. … We have a short-term goal and a longer-term goal. … I just want to be very clear that we’re taking this issue seriously.”
City Engineer Daryl Jordan provided an update on the Bear Creek Restoration Project, which was launched back in October of 2022, and re-energized after floods of 2023. Backed by $6 million in state funding, the project targets the erosion of waterway embankments and long-term stability along a six-mile stretch of the creek from McKee Road to 16th Street. The project also includes the removal of invasive vegetation, improving habitat conditions, repairing damaged portions of the multiuse bike path, repairing effective sewer infrastructure, and prioritizing the locations with the greatest maintenance and safety needs.
Jordan said various major surveys and resource studies have been completed. The California Environmental Quality Act Review is complete. He said the project has reached the 100 percent design stage at this point. However, he said some key permits and federal permit applications were still “in process.”
“The final bid package is expected to be completed by this month,” he told the Council. “Construction is currently anticipated to begin in May of 2027. So there’s been a lot of paperwork through agencies and federal agencies that have taken a lot of time and effort. We’re at the final stages of preparing those so we can go to construction.”
Jordan added, “We are looking for some additional funding that some of our state folks are helping us with right now.”
Ken Elwin, the city’s director of Public Works, said the city is working in coordination with the county on vegetation management aspects of the Bear Creek waterway, with their focus directed from town all the way to the Crocker-Huffman Diversion Dam in the northeast. He admitted, however, that the stream alteration permit process through the California Department of Fish and Wildlife was an “onerous” one that includes habitat assessments, avoidance measures and other mitigations.
“Currently we have the habitat assessments done through the county consultant. The next phase with that permit is what they call a verification request form. So you identify the area that you want to do work in, describe the work that you need to do, and submit that to Fish and Wildlife. They review it. You have another assessment to make sure there’s no giant garter snake habitat or kit fox habitat, or whatever it is. … Hopefully that review takes a month. We’re hoping, but you don’t know what Fish and Wildlife are going to require. But that would be really to target the vegetation around the banks. … If we can get that done before the flood season gets here, that’ll be good. … Also, we will bring forward an MOU with the county to tag team on the effort because we have both city and county areas along Bear Creek. The county has already procured a vegetation management consultant, so we’ll be piggybacking off that and doing the work together.”
Elwin added: “Hopefully we can start work maybe in November. I’m not too sure.”
Mayor Serratto asked about trees growing inside the creek, and parts of dead ones at the creek bottom. Elwin replied that a lot of that debris already has been removed, and: “We will know if there’s any more once the irrigation season has come to an end, and MID lowers water in the creek.”
Serratto followed up with a question about lessons learned from the past flood and better techniques to protect the creek’s north bank.
Said Elwin: “One thing we did figure out during the last flood was that the flood wall needed to be reinforced or backed up with heavier blocks. You can calculate it based on the height of water anticipated … We’ve actually produced a number of those blocks. I think they weigh 2,500 pounds each. We have around 100 of those blocks.”
Councilman Shane Smith chimed in, saying the discussion sounded “a bit frustrating.”
“Red tape keeps people employed in Sacramento, but with everything we know, the rains are coming,” he stated. “If you guys could get started on removing vegetation, say from Crocker Dam to Campus Parkway, just from an engineering and climate perspective, when would you want to get started? Would it be sooner than November?”
Elwin quickly replied: “Today.”
“There’s a lot of vegetation because the last time we did work probably was 2018, when the permit expired, and we only got the permit renewed after the flood, and with that came a lot of onerous regulations. … The way it happened before: One year we would do one bank, and we would alternate the next year on the other side. That was how the permit was set up. There were very few biological assessments or avoidance measures that had to be done at that time. But the new permit is not that way. It’s a full-blown environmental document. So, unfortunately, that’s what we have to deal with right now.”
Councilman Smith asked about the possibility of declaring an emergency. Elwin pointed out that an emergency declaration would be up to local and state leaders. “You have to have a legitimate reason to declare an emergency,” he said. “Right now, we don’t have a crystal ball. I mean, they said El Niño is coming, but who knows what that means?”
Smith then asked how quickly could the city and county mobilize a vegetation removal team with the machinery needed.
“We haven’t gone to that level of detail yet and how many people they can throw at it at any one point in time,” replied Elwin. “In the past, we’ve also had the assistance of MID … They would go in and clear stuff, but with the new regulations, you have to map it all out before you go in there. So can’t just do a slash and burn method. You have to be more delicate as you move through those areas. That in itself will slow you down.”